Keeping an eye on it
Offshore low, prolonged NE wind, coastal flooding Wed-Thu
Minor coastal flooding, gusty NE wind
South Shore Long Island, NYC harbor edges, East End
Wed Oct 21, 12:00 AM to Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM
Forecast
What to watch 1 to watch
My 7-day forecast
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Tonight
High 54° Low 46°
No rain, gusts to 9 mph
Clear and chilly tonight. Some frost inland.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
Low 43° · Rain chance 0%
Clear
Tonight. Clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 51–55° · lows 44–50° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 54° 45° No rain 10 mph NAM 54° 50° No rain 8 mph GFS 54° 45° No rain 10 mph ECMWF 51° 45° No rain 10 mph ECMWF AI 54° 50° No rain — ICON 54° 46° No rain 10 mph GEM 55° 44° No rain 4 mph NBM 55° 46° No rain 5 mph My desk call
High 56°, low 43° · No rain · Gusts to 5-10 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Little risk, a patch of frost in cold spots.
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Tomorrow
High 60° Low 44°
No rain, gusts to 23 mph
Sunny, dry and a bit breezy near the coast.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 61° · Low 48° · Rain chance 0%
Sunny
Monday. Sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Monday Night. Partly cloudy. Low around 48, with temperatures rising to around 50 overnight. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 58–62° · lows 42–48° · they agree
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 59° 43° No rain 22 mph NAM 58° 48° No rain 28 mph GFS 59° 43° No rain 22 mph ECMWF 60° 42° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 60° 48° No rain — ICON 60° 42° No rain 24 mph GEM 62° 42° No rain 21 mph NBM 61° 45° No rain 18 mph My desk call
High 60°, low 44° · No rain · Gusts to 15-25 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Gusts to 30 near the shore.
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Tuesday
High 64° Low 50°
No rain, gusts to 37 mph
Dry but windy, strongest along the South Shore and East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 1%
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Tuesday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Northeast wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 60–66° · lows 48–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 63° 49° No rain 40 mph NAM 60° 51° No rain 44 mph GFS 66° 49° No rain 40 mph ECMWF 64° 49° No rain 26 mph ECMWF AI 65° 52° No rain — ICON 66° 48° No rain 30 mph GEM 62° 52° No rain 40 mph NBM 65° 50° No rain 26 mph My desk call
High 63°, low 50° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Gusts near 50 come from one Canadian model only; the others stay in the 40s at Montauk.
If it goes wrong: Isolated gusts near 50 on the East End.
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Wednesday
High 58° Low 48°
No rain, gusts to 30 mph
Dry, cooler and breezy with a steady northeast wind. Coastal roads could see minor flooding at high tide.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° warmer than NWS
National Weather Service
High 60° · Low 44° · Rain chance 9%
Mostly Sunny
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night. A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
The models
6 models · highs 56–60° · lows 46–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 59° 50° No rain 32 mph ECMWF 56° 46° No rain 27 mph ECMWF AI 58° 52° 0.36 in — ICON 59° 48° No rain 34 mph GEM 57° 49° No rain 27 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 28 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 48° · No rain · Gusts to 25-32 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS; surge guidance not yet reviewed.
If it goes wrong: Minor coastal flooding at high tide if the offshore low comes closer.
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Thursday
High 62° Low 47°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Mostly dry and breezy. A stray shower is possible on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 15%
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Thursday. A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
The models
6 models · highs 59–64° · lows 43–51° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 64° 51° No rain 33 mph ECMWF 63° 43° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 59° 51° 0.49 in — ICON 64° 49° No rain 33 mph GEM 59° 47° No rain 22 mph NBM 64° 46° No rain 23 mph My desk call
High 61°, low 48° · Trace of rain · Gusts to 20-28 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: One AI model is wetter on the East End; nothing else shows rain.
If it goes wrong: A shower or two, up to a quarter inch on the East End.
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Friday
High 56° Low 45°
No rain, gusts to 25 mph
Dry, cooler and calmer.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° cooler than NWS
National Weather Service
High 59° · Low 43° · Rain chance 3%
Sunny
Friday. Sunny, with a high near 59.
Friday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
The models
6 models · highs 52–60° · lows 42–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 59° 52° No rain 25 mph ECMWF 52° 42° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 56° 49° No rain — ICON 55° 42° No rain 27 mph GEM 56° 44° No rain 20 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 22 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 46° · No rain · Gusts to 15-22 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Stays dry.
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Saturday
High 57° Low 42°
No rain, gusts to 16 mph
Dry and seasonably cool.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 58° · Low 43° · Rain chance 4%
Sunny
Saturday. Sunny, with a high near 58.
Saturday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 43.
The models
6 models · highs 54–58° · lows 39–50° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 58° 50° No rain 15 mph ECMWF 54° 39° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 58° 44° No rain — ICON 58° 39° No rain 19 mph GEM 56° 41° No rain 11 mph NBM 58° 45° No rain 16 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 44° · No rain · Gusts to 10-18 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Stays dry.