About

I read the models and the National Weather Service, then make my own call. This isn't an official forecast.

This page is the working forecast behind goldbergweather.com, for New York City, Long Island and Westchester. I write a morning update and an evening outlook, and I add a note whenever something changes.

Between my updates the page keeps refreshing from the latest computer models. Anything marked Automatic update or Automatic summary was put together by a computer from those numbers, not written by me. The "What to watch" box is where I flag anything worth planning around.

For official warnings, watches and advisories, go to the National Weather Service in New York: weather.gov/okx.

Which models I use

I blend eight computer models, and none of them gets the final say. I scored each one against the actual highs and lows at Republic Airport in Farmingdale, one day ahead, two days ahead and so on, and each model counts more on the days where it has done best here. No single model has been clearly best, so the weight is spread fairly evenly: the hourly HRRR counts only for today and tomorrow, and the European AI model counts more the further out you go.

I also keep an eye on each model's habits. If one has been running a few degrees too warm or too cool here (I need at least two weeks of its forecasts to tell), I nudge its numbers back before blending. For rain I use the middle of the models, so one very wet model can't decide the forecast. The range I show is still the full spread of the models, so you can see when they disagree. On the Models page you can see all of them side by side.

On that page the Snow view adds up each model's snow, with the National Weather Service's total beside it. The Ice view marks the hours a model shows freezing rain or drizzle, because the models don't give an ice amount, and shows the National Weather Service's ice total.

Data sources

• Hourly model forecasts: Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0).
• NOAA/NCEP models: HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS, GFS, NBM and AIGFS.
• ECMWF models: IFS and AIFS (CC BY 4.0).
• Environment and Climate Change Canada: HRDPS.
• National Weather Service: forecasts, current conditions, watches, warnings and advisories (US government data, public domain).

Times are Eastern.