Keeping an eye on it
Fri-Sat Oct 16-17 cold front wind
Gusty wind, rain, then freeze
Coast and Long Island, Montauk highest; interior freeze Sat night
Fri Oct 16, 12:00 PM to Sat Oct 17, 11:00 PM
Dry and quiet, breezy Tuesday and Wednesday
From Alex · 5:55 PM
Mostly dry all week. The wind picks up Tuesday and Wednesday, strongest near the coast.
I'm expecting a quiet stretch. Tonight is clear and chilly, with frost inland. Monday is sunny and dry. Tuesday and Wednesday turn breezy from the northeast, with the strongest gusts along the South Shore and East End, mostly 25 to 35 mph at home and higher near Montauk. There is a small chance of minor coastal flooding at high tide Wednesday or Thursday if the offshore low comes closer. I'm not confident on that yet and will check again tomorrow. Rain stays out of the picture for now.
What to watch 2 to watch
Keeping an eye on it
Offshore low, prolonged NE wind, coastal flooding Wed-Thu
Minor coastal flooding, gusty NE wind
South Shore Long Island, NYC harbor edges, East End
Wed Oct 21, 12:00 AM to Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM
Right now
55°
Clear
Wind 6 mph
Republic Airport, Farmingdale, observed 24 min ago
Next 12 hours
- 6 PM54°0% rain
- 7 PM52°0% rain
- 8 PM49°0% rain
- 9 PM47°0% rain
- 10 PM46°0% rain
- 11 PM46°0% rain
- 12 AM44°0% rain
- 1 AM44°0% rain
- 2 AM43°0% rain
- 3 AM44°0% rain
- 4 AM44°0% rain
- 5 AM44°0% rain
The next few days
-
Tonight
High 54° Low 46°
No rain, gusts to 9 mph
Clear and chilly tonight. Some frost inland.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 59° · Low 43° · Rain chance 0%
Sunny
This Afternoon. Sunny. High near 59, with temperatures falling to around 57 in the afternoon. North wind around 5 mph.
Tonight. Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 51–55° · lows 44–50° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 54° 45° No rain 10 mph NAM 54° 50° No rain 8 mph GFS 54° 45° No rain 10 mph ECMWF 51° 45° No rain 10 mph ECMWF AI 54° 50° No rain — ICON 54° 46° No rain 10 mph GEM 55° 44° No rain 4 mph NBM 55° 46° No rain 5 mph My desk call
High 56°, low 43° · No rain · Gusts to 5-10 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Little risk, a patch of frost in cold spots.
-
Tomorrow
High 60° Low 44°
No rain, gusts to 23 mph
Sunny, dry and a bit breezy near the coast.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 61° · Low 48° · Rain chance 0%
Mostly Sunny
Monday. Mostly sunny. High near 61, with temperatures falling to around 59 in the afternoon. Northeast wind 6 to 12 mph.
Monday Night. Mostly cloudy. Low around 48, with temperatures rising to around 50 overnight. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
The models
8 models · highs 58–62° · lows 42–48° · they agree
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 59° 43° No rain 22 mph NAM 58° 48° No rain 28 mph GFS 59° 43° No rain 22 mph ECMWF 60° 42° No rain 20 mph ECMWF AI 60° 48° No rain — ICON 60° 42° No rain 24 mph GEM 62° 42° No rain 21 mph NBM 61° 45° No rain 18 mph My desk call
High 60°, low 44° · No rain · Gusts to 15-25 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS.
If it goes wrong: Gusts to 30 near the shore.
-
Tuesday
High 64° Low 50°
No rain, gusts to 37 mph
Dry but windy, strongest along the South Shore and East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 2%
Partly Sunny
Tuesday. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Tuesday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
The models
8 models · highs 60–66° · lows 48–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust HRRR 63° 49° No rain 40 mph NAM 60° 51° No rain 44 mph GFS 66° 49° No rain 40 mph ECMWF 64° 49° No rain 26 mph ECMWF AI 65° 52° No rain — ICON 66° 48° No rain 30 mph GEM 62° 52° No rain 40 mph NBM 65° 50° No rain 26 mph My desk call
High 63°, low 50° · No rain · Gusts to 25-35 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Gusts near 50 come from one Canadian model only; the others stay in the 40s at Montauk.
If it goes wrong: Isolated gusts near 50 on the East End.
-
Wednesday
High 58° Low 48°
No rain, gusts to 30 mph
Dry, cooler and breezy with a steady northeast wind. Coastal roads could see minor flooding at high tide.
From Alex · Written this evening
3° warmer than NWS
National Weather Service
High 60° · Low 44° · Rain chance 10%
Mostly Sunny
Wednesday. Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday Night. A slight chance of rain showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.
The models
6 models · highs 56–60° · lows 46–52° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 59° 50° No rain 32 mph ECMWF 56° 46° No rain 27 mph ECMWF AI 58° 52° 0.36 in — ICON 59° 48° No rain 34 mph GEM 57° 49° No rain 27 mph NBM 60° 48° No rain 28 mph My desk call
High 57°, low 48° · No rain · Gusts to 25-32 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: Same as the NWS; surge guidance not yet reviewed.
If it goes wrong: Minor coastal flooding at high tide if the offshore low comes closer.
-
Thursday
High 62° Low 47°
No rain, gusts to 29 mph
Mostly dry and breezy. A stray shower is possible on the East End.
From Alex · Written this evening
National Weather Service
High 64° · Low 47° · Rain chance 15%
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Sunny
Thursday. A slight chance of rain showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night. Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
The models
6 models · highs 59–64° · lows 43–51° · some spread
Model High Low Rain Gust GFS 64° 51° No rain 33 mph ECMWF 63° 43° No rain 28 mph ECMWF AI 59° 51° 0.49 in — ICON 64° 49° No rain 33 mph GEM 59° 47° No rain 22 mph NBM 64° 46° No rain 23 mph My desk call
High 61°, low 48° · Trace of rain · Gusts to 20-28 mph
Same as the NWS
How this differs from the NWS: One AI model is wetter on the East End; nothing else shows rain.
If it goes wrong: A shower or two, up to a quarter inch on the East End.